Hegemonic Institution vs. Constitutional Moment vs. Human Project: Which Scenario is Most Likely?

In the asynchronous lecture this week, Professor Jackson outlines three scenarios for future power transitions: a hegemonic institution, constitutional moment, and human project. He then asks the questions, "which one is most likely?" and "which one is most desirable?". I thought these were two excellent questions and want to explore them in this blog post.

I'm going to start with the latter - "Which one is most desirable?". I would argue that the answer to this question will vary person-to-person, state-to-state. On the individual level, the answer to this question will vary depending on how you view the international realm. If you believe in power politics and see a sense of security and comfort in power politics, the hegemonic institution would be most appealing. If you would prefer to see a more integrated and cohesive international society where different states and groups work more in sync with one another, the constitutional moment would be a good bet. Depending on how integrated you wanted you wanted the international to be, you may even opt for a human project. However, considering the conditions Professor Jackson laid out in his lecture that he hinted are necessary for this human movement (alien attack) maybe this isn't a desirable scenario for anyone.

To answer the first question, "Which scenario is most likely?", I would argue that the constitutional moment scenario is more likely in today's international realm, but that is only because of recent evolutions in the international realm. Prior to the invention of nuclear weapons, I would argue that hegemonic institutions would be most likely.  However, nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction have made this scenario very unlikely. In the Hegemonic Institution scenario, one power would have to rise above the rest and form institutions and bureaucracies to solidify its position. This is just not possible in today's world. States equipped with nuclear weapons, and the United States specifically, will prevent a new global hegemon from rising to the top and forming institutions to solidify its status. What is much more likely is states gaining power in the international forming new constitutional movements that gives them more equal status among the other global powers. Unless there was a new form of weaponry that could negate the finality of nuclear weapons, I don't see the hegemonic institutional scenario as a very likely scenario... Of course the answer to this question could change instantaneously if Aliens appear above and/or on our planet and threaten to kill all humanity. If that happens then my answer would be the "Human Project" scenario.